Botswana, Africa’s top diamond producer, sees a prolonged ban on Russian diamonds opening the way for synthetic gems to expand market share, the country’s minister told a mining conference on Monday.
The United States, the world’s largest market for natural diamonds, imposed sanctions on Russia’s state-controlled Alrosa in April, aiming to cut off a source of revenue for Moscow after its February invasion of Ukraine.
Alrosa, the world’s largest producer of rough diamonds, accounted for about 30% of global output in 2021.
Botswana’s Minister of Minerals and Energy Lefoko Moagi said the ban on Russia diamonds might push prices up to the benefit of rival producers but he also said the gap would be hard to fill.
“We see the 30% gap that will be left by the ban being plugged by something else that is not natural. And for us that will be a challenge,” he said.
Jacob Thamage, head of Botswana’s Diamond Hub, said uncertainty over the Ukraine conflict makes it difficult for Botswana and other natural diamond miners to fill the supply gap as ramping up operations requires significant investment.
“You don’t want to invest a lot of money to up-scale and then the war ends the next day,” Thamage said. “We also see the higher prices pushing consumers to substitutes such as the synthetics and this can cause problems for us if we cede the market to unnatural stones.”
Sales at Debswana, a joint venture between Anglo American unit De Beers and Botswana’s government, accounts for almost all of Botswana diamonds exports. These stood at $3.466 billion in 2021 compared with $2.120 billion in 2020.
Thamage also fears that consumers might start to shun natural diamonds due to traceability issues.
“There is an increased fear that buyers of diamonds will begin to treat all natural diamonds as conflict diamonds and therefore shift to unnatural diamonds,” he said.
Alrosa canceled its last sale in April and is unlikely to sell any large volumes again this month
Prices are surging in some corners of the rough-diamond market, as sanctions on one of the world’s two giant miners ripple through the supply chain. In the past, the industry could turn to behemoth De Beers to crank out extra gems when supply ran tight — but not this time.
The price of a small rough diamond, the type that would end up clustered around the solitaire stone in a ring, has jumped about 20% since the start of March, according to people familiar with the matter. The reason: Diamond cutters, polishers and traders are struggling to source stones after the US levied sanctions on De Beers’s Russian rival, Alrosa PJSC, which accounts for about a third of global production.
For most of the modern history of diamonds, this is the sort of situation where De Beers could have tapped its vast stockpiles or simply fired up latent mining capacity. Little more than 20 years ago, its safes in London held stocks of diamonds worth perhaps as much as $5 billion.
Those days are now long gone. The company only carries working inventory stocks and its mines are running at full tilt. There is little chance of material increases in supply before 2024, when an expansion at its flagship South African mine will be completed.
“It’s very difficult to see us bringing on any new production,” Chief Executive Officer Bruce Cleaver said in an interview in Cape Town. “Thirty percent of supply being removed isn’t sustainable.”
De Beers also produces relatively few of the type of diamonds Alrosa specializes in: the small and cheap gems that surround a larger center-point stone or are used in lower-end jewelry sold in places like Walmart or Costco.
For many in the sector, that means growing shortages unless Alrosa and its trade buyers can find a work around.
Alrosa canceled its last sale in April and is unlikely to sell any large volumes again this month, the people said. It’s uncertain when the company will be able to sell normally again, they said, even as the company, banks and buyers look for solutions.
Endiama, which holds the exclusive concession for diamond mining rights in Angola, has already flagged an almost one-third reduction in diamond output this year.
Angola’s state-run diamond miner Endiama could face a hit to its operations as Western sanctions on Russia could delay supplies of parts and machinery, according to a government brochure.
The government publication was made available at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town on Monday.
Western nations have unleashed crippling economic sanctions against Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.
Endiama, which holds the exclusive concession for diamond mining rights in Angola, has already flagged an almost one-third reduction in diamond output to 10.05 million carats this year, from a forecast 13.8 million carats.
The company expects revenue of about $1.42bn from the sale of its diamonds this year.
“One of the great challenges for 2022 will certainly be to maintain the sustainability of the mines while the war between Russia and Ukraine lasts,” said the government brochure, “since the sanctions that the United States and Western countries have imposed on Russia may affect some national mining companies, delaying the supply of some machinery, parts and spares.”
Endiama has signed contracts with Rio Tinto to explore its Chiri mine in the Angolan province of Lunda Norte, while another project, Luaxe, was also expected to begin pilot production, it added, without providing a timeline.
Last month, diamond miner De Beers signed two mineral investment contracts with the Angolan government, the Anglo American subsidiary said ahead of a return to the country it left in 2012.
Russia may buy an as yet undetermined amount of rough diamonds from sanctions-hit producer Alrosa through its state precious metals and gems repository Gokhran, the country’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday.
The United States imposed sanctions on state-controlled Alrosa in April, complicating the Russian company’s operations in the global diamond market, with the aim of cutting off a source of revenue for Russia.
“We do not rule out the possibility of Gokhran purchasing diamonds produced by Alrosa. The amount will be determined later,” Siluanov told reporters.
Gokhran is generally more focused on purchases of precious metals from Russian domestic producers than diamonds, he added.
Alrosa, the world’s largest producer of rough diamonds, was behind about 30% of global output in 2021 and competes with Anglo American unit De Beers.
Its sales, mainly to Belgium, India and the United Arab Emirates, totalled $4.2 billion in 2021.
Gokhran bought diamonds worth $1 billion from Alrosa during years of weak demand caused by the global financial crisis.
Exports of rough diamonds from Russia’s state-owned Alrosa mines have resumed to India, although tensions remain high over such consignments.
Many Western nations are seeking to shut down Russia’s diamond trade with India by calling Russian diamonds conflict diamonds, or blood diamonds.
Critics such as Cristina Villegas, director of the Mines to Markets program at Pact, a development NGO, was quoted by the India-phobic London based Guardian as saying: “These are objectively conflict diamonds: they’re funding an armed conflict against a peaceful neighbour, by a state actor.” Villegas was silent about the flood of cash going to Russia by oil and gas purchases from European countries.
Alrosa, the world’s top diamond producer by output, has been hit by fresh sanctions imposed by the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
The OFAC announced late on Thursday it had placed Alrosa on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) list, which effectively kicks a sanctioned company out of the US banking system and bans its trade with Americans.
The measure against the Russian state-owned diamond miner seeks to cut off additional sources of revenue for Moscow, the government agency said.
It also affects any entities in which Alrosa has a 50% interest or more, either directly or indirectly.
The company’s customers well as other counterparties must stop all dealings with the state-controlled Russian miner by May 7, Treasury said.
Shares in the company collapsed on the news, closing nearly 13% lower on Friday trading in Moscow.
Alrosa and its chief executive Sergei S. Ivanov were included in the first wave of restrictions announced by Washington, which restricted the company’s ability to raise new debt and equity in the US.
“These actions, taken with the Department of State and in coordination with our allies and partners, reflect our continued effort to restrict the Kremlin’s access to assets, resources, and sectors of the economy that are essential to supplying and financing Putin’s brutality,” Treasury said in the statement.
The European Union and the UK have also imposed sanctions on the miner following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Diamonds are one of Russia’s top ten non-energy exports by value, with exports in 2021 totalling over $4.5 billion, it noted.
Alrosa is responsible for 90% of Russia’s diamond output and 28% of global supply, with 32.4 million carats produced in 2021 and sales topping $4 billion thanks mainly to consumer demand from the US.
Loopholes Experts have noted the sanctions against the miner carry a significant loophole. Russia’s rough diamonds are sent to another country — usually India — where they are polished and cut, which makes them the product of that nation in the global market.
Another issue is that diamonds of various origins are often mixed once polished, which can make it more difficult for companies that independently vow to stop buying Russian goods.
The Responsible Jewellery Council (RJC), the leading standards organization of the global jewellery and watch industry, took steps into that direction in early April and suspended Alrosa’s membership.
“Fundamentally, we remain focused on RJC’s purpose, which is to ensure all jewellery is responsibly sourced,” the group’s char David Bouffard said in the statement.
World’s top diamond miner Alrosa hit by US sanctions The main markets for Alrosa, which employs about 32,000 people, are the US and Asia (Photo: Dmitry Amelkin, Transformation Director of Alrosa’s Polishing Division. Courtesy of Alrosa | Twitter. ) US-based jewellers Tiffany & Co. and Signet Jewelers said in March they would no longer buy new diamonds mined in Russia.
Alrosa withdrew in March from the Natural Diamond Council (NDC), a market alliance of the world’s leading producers of precious stones. By doing so, the company not only stepped down from the board, but it also cut all financial contributions.
The Mirny, Sakha-based miner also has a 41% stake in Angolan diamond production firm Catoca, which is not affected by the latest US sanctions given the OFAC.
While the full effects of the sanctions on the already undersupplied global rough diamonds market are not yet clear, the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC) has said there was a chance the restrictions could prove counterproductive.
“It is a blow that should hurt Russia but there is a chance that we do more damage to ourselves,” spokesman Tom Neys told Belgian newspaper Gazet van Antwerpen. “The Russians can easily trade their diamonds with non-EU countries and outside the US.”
The diamond jewelry industry is going into the year with diamond supply at historically low levels, estimated by Bain & Company at 29 million carats in 2021. “Upstream inventories declined ~40%, driven by high demand and slow production recovery, and are near the minimal technical level,”
Russian miner Alrosa has suspended its membership in the Responsible Jewellery Council (RJC), both organizations announced last week.
The development came just over a month after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The RJC board of directors voted to accept Alrosa’s decision, the standards groups said Friday.
Alrosa exited the RJC board in early March, but remained a member of the organization. RJC received criticism for not removing the company: Last week, luxury group Richemont and jeweler Pandora both stood down from the organization in protest, while RJC executive director Iris Van der Veken resigned over the issue.
The organization defended itself, noting that it was waiting for the outcome of a legal review.
“Beginning on March 3, the [RJC] board immediately began a comprehensive, third-party legal review to ensure it had the appropriate authority, within its constitutional documents, to take action,” the RJC statement continued. “The law firm selected — having concluded its own standard conflict of interest assessment — commenced their review of RJC’s governance, the board’s authorities, training modules and many other documents and processes.”
Sanctions by the US and UK governments during February and March complicated the situation and delayed completion of the review, the RJC explained. The board received the final document in the middle of last week.
“Taking any action prior to the delivery of the legal opinion would have exposed the RJC to significant legal risk,” it argued.
Alrosa — in which the Russian government owns a 33% stake — confirmed its suspension, saying it cared for the industry “as much as it cares for its mining communities.”
The company “believes in the diamond industry and the people who work to make it great all over the globe,” the statement continued. “We are one of the major contributors to the sustainable development of this industry. We will continue to uphold our highest standards of responsible business conduct and business ethics that are an integral part of our culture and principles.”
US President Joe Biden has issued an executive order prohibiting the import of “nonindustrial” diamonds originating in Russia.
The measures, which the White House announced on Friday, follow Russia’s continued war in Ukraine and build on earlier US sanctions outlawing debt and equity transactions with Alrosa and its CEO, Sergey Ivanov. Those previous rulings did not constitute an outright ban on shipping Russian goods into America.
The latest order will affect goods from Russian miner Alrosa, which supplies around 30% of global rough supply by volume. Biden has also prohibited the export of luxury goods from the US to Russia.
On the same day, Signet Jewelers — an Alrosa contract client — announced it had “suspended business interaction with Russian-owned entities since the beginning of the invasion.” The Gemological Institute of America (GIA) has stopped taking submissions of Russian products for its Diamond Origin Report service, and has also paused all transactions with laboratory submissions from sanctioned entities.
Meanwhile, Alrosa has delayed publication of its monthly sales data until further notice. The company was unavailable for comment at press time on Sunday.
De Beers, the world’s top diamond producer by value, saw sales jump by 18% in the second cycle of 2022 compared to the same period last year, attesting to the industry’s consolidated recovery from the first pandemic-induced shutdowns.
The Anglo American unit sold $650 million of diamonds between February 21 to February 25, down $10 million from the first cycle of the year, but higher than the $550 million it sold in the second cycle of 2021.
De Beers sells its gems through 10 sales each year in Botswana’s capital, Gaborone, and the handpicked buyers known as sightholders generally must accept the price and the quantities offered.
Customers are given a black and yellow box containing plastic bags filled with stones, with the number of boxes and quality of diamonds depending on what the buyer and De Beers agreed to in an annual allocation.
The company said that owing to the restrictions on the movement of people and products in various jurisdictions around the globe, it has continued to implement a “more flexible approach” to selling roughs, which included extending the latest sight event beyond its normal week-long duration.
The miner, which has benefitted from a steady recovery in the diamond market, is said to have hiked prices by about 8% in January. It had already increased the price of its rough diamonds throughout much of 2021 as it sought to recover from the first year of the pandemic when the industry came to a near halt. Most of these hikes, however, were applied to stones bigger than 1 carat.
The strategy granted De Beers a steady recovery during 2021. Its diamond prices rose by 23% in “just over a year,” said Mark Cutifani, CEO of Anglo American in a December presentation.
Russia-Ukraine effect De Beers may benefit from the sanctions imposed to Russian companies as Moscow-based Alrosa (MCX: ALRS), the world’s top diamond miner by output, is its main competitor.
Alrosa and its chief executive Sergei S. Ivanov were included in the first wave of restrictions announced by the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which targeted mainly banks and energy firms.
Data from the US Treasury shows Alrosa is responsible for 90% of Russia’s diamond production and 28% of global supply.
De Beers chief executive Bruce Cleaver said the company has been “shocked” and “saddened” by the war in Ukraine, so it will donate $1 million to aid organizations operating in the region and providing support to those affected by the ongoing conflict.
Experts believe that The Kremlin will soon be unable to pay its debts amid increasing international sanctions against Russia.
Credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded its view of the country’s government debt, warning a default is “imminent” for the second time this month.
“The further ratcheting up of sanctions, and proposals that could limit trade in energy, increase the probability of a policy response by Russia that includes at least selective non-payment of its sovereign debt obligations,” the agency said.
Moscow has told investors that it will continue to service its sovereign debt but warned that international sanctions imposed on its energy industry could limit its ability and willingness to meet its obligations.
The US has imposed sanctions on Alrosa and its CEO, Sergey S. Ivanov, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The diamond miner is one of 11 entities the Department of the Treasury has identified as being owned by or connected to the Russian government, according to a Thursday statement. The measures restrict American companies’ ability to engage in debt and equity transactions with Alrosa after Russia launched military action in Ukraine last week.
“Effectively, this action bans US businesses and persons from entering into debt transactions longer than 14 days with Alrosa but does not impose the harsher sanctions of an asset freeze and outright prohibition of all business,” the Jewelers Vigilance Committee (JVC), a source of legal guidance for the industry, said in an alert to members. “For the jewelry industry, any open memo agreements previously entered into with terms longer than 14 days should immediately be amended to shorten the terms, and/or closed.”
US companies should also evaluate any current transactions with Alrosa or its stateside affiliate, Alrosa USA, to ensure they do not violate the sanctions, the JVC added. The executive order does not apply to goods acquired from Alrosa or Alrosa USA before February 24, the organization pointed out.
Alrosa, a third of which is owned by the Russian state, is responsible for 90% of Russia’s diamond-mining capacity, the Treasury noted. The sanctions include Ivanov because the US counts him among the “leaders, officials, senior executive officers, or members of the board of directors” of the Russian government, and because he is the son of sanctioned official Sergei B. Ivanov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the statement continued.
“Treasury is taking serious and unprecedented action to deliver swift and severe consequences to the Kremlin and significantly impair their ability to use the Russian economy and financial system to further their malign activity,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “Our actions, taken in coordination with partners and allies, will degrade Russia’s ability to project power and threaten the peace and stability of Europe.”
Alrosa said its interactions with international partners would continue and that it was working to avoid any impact.
“Alrosa is carefully studying new working conditions in connection with the imposed sanctions,” a spokesperson for the miner told Rapaport News Sunday. “We intend to offer all our stakeholders the best possible service. We do our best to fulfil our obligations so that their businesses would continue to operate as usual.”
In line with its approach of fostering long-term sustainable development of the diamond market, ALROSA gives its customers an opportunity to adjust their diamond purchase schedules under trading sessions.
The demand for rough diamonds in early 2022 as well as in the second half of 2021 was outstripping supply, as cutters were actively buying rough to restock and fulfill the orders placed by jewelers and retailers.
Given the primary importance of a balanced market and the need to meet the real-backed demand, ALROSA offers its long-term customers a new option to adjust supply schedules between trading sessions. As a result, holders of long-term contracts can buy rough diamonds from their allocations ahead of the schedule by shifting booked volumes to an earlier date.
“The first quarter of the year is traditionally a period of active rough diamond purchases, as cutters seek to stock up after a holiday season in retail. The high season of 2021 was one of the most successful ones in the entire history, as we see robust demand from our customers underpinned by real orders. By reaffirming its commitment to a prudent and balanced policy aimed at sustainable progressive growth of the industry, ALROSA offers its customers a new option of adjusting diamond purchase schedules within their allocations by requesting the part of the booked rough diamond volumes to be moved to an earlier date. We believe that this innovation, together with the Gokhran auction slated for late February 2022, will speed up progress in addressing current market deficit. With the same goal in mind, we will hold an additional tender between trading sessions. We will offer the rough diamonds highly sought-after by cutters as soon as these goods leave the work-in-progress,” said Evgeny Agureev.
Long-term contracts for a 3-year period with major jewelry holdings, cutters, traders, and consumers of industrial diamonds make up the core of ALROSA’s sales system and traditionally account for the largest part of the company’s turnover. ALROSA makes special efforts to guarantee responsible business practices across the diamond production chain.
