The Future of Natural Diamonds: As Global Mines Reach End of Life, Will the Second-Hand Market Become the New Source of Supply?

 

For more than 150 years, the world’s natural diamond industry has relied on a steady pipeline of newly mined diamonds entering the market. However, that era is rapidly changing. Many of the world’s most productive diamond mines are approaching the end of their economic lives, exploration success has slowed dramatically, and few major new discoveries are expected to replace the enormous production that is disappearing.

This raises an important question for the jewellery industry, collectors, and consumers alike:

Where will tomorrow’s natural diamonds come from?

The World’s Largest Diamond Mines Are Running Out

Many of the world’s iconic diamond mines are now in decline or nearing closure.

Examples include:

• Argyle Mine (Australia) – Closed in 2020 after producing more than 865 million carats over its 37-year life. Argyle supplied around 90% of the world’s rare pink diamonds and was once one of the highest-volume producers globally. Its closure permanently removed a significant source of natural diamonds from the market.
• Diavik Mine (Canada) – Scheduled to cease production around 2026–2027 after two decades of operation.
• Ekati Mine (Canada) – Although still operating, reserves continue to decline and production has fallen significantly from its peak.
• Venetia Open Pit (South Africa) – Transitioning to underground mining to extend its life, but at considerably lower production levels and substantially higher operating costs.
• Jwaneng (Botswana) – Often described as the richest diamond mine in the world, it continues to produce exceptional diamonds, although maintaining production requires increasingly expensive underground expansion projects.
• Orapa (Botswana) – One of the world’s largest diamond mines by area, but also a mature operation facing the realities of ageing reserves.

Few major discoveries have emerged over the past twenty years that are capable of replacing the millions of carats these operations once produced.

New Discoveries Are Becoming Increasingly Rare

Diamond exploration is an expensive, high-risk undertaking.

Unlike previous decades, when rich kimberlite pipes were discovered in Australia, Canada, Russia and southern Africa, today’s exploration companies face:

• Much deeper geological targets
• Increasing environmental approvals
• Higher capital costs
• Greater political uncertainty
• Reduced investor appetite

Even when a new deposit is found, bringing it into commercial production can take well over a decade and require investments measured in billions of dollars.

The result is a steadily shrinking pipeline of new natural diamonds.

Fewer Diamonds Does Not Mean Lower Demand

Although consumer preferences continue to evolve, natural diamonds remain highly sought after for fine jewellery, investment-grade stones and rare collector pieces.

Unlike laboratory-grown diamonds, every natural diamond is a finite geological resource formed between one and three billion years ago. Once mined, no new natural diamonds can be manufactured.

As mining output declines, the existing inventory of polished natural diamonds becomes increasingly important.

The Rise of the Secondary Market

Historically, relatively few diamonds returned to the market.

Natural diamonds were commonly passed through generations as family heirlooms or remained in jewellery collections for decades.

However, several factors are beginning to change this:

• An ageing population transferring wealth
• Estate jewellery entering the market
• Increased recycling by professional jewellers
• Specialist diamond buying companies
• Greater consumer awareness of resale value
• Online marketplaces making resale easier

Over time, previously owned natural diamonds may become one of the largest sources of supply for the jewellery trade.

Much like antique watches, rare coins and fine art, existing natural diamonds may circulate repeatedly between owners while no meaningful replacement supply enters the market.

Recycling Diamonds Is Not New

The diamond trade has quietly recycled diamonds for centuries.

Antique European jewellery has often been dismantled and remounted multiple times as fashions changed.

Victorian diamonds became Edwardian jewellery.

Edwardian diamonds became Art Deco pieces.

Art Deco diamonds have been reset into modern engagement rings.

The diamond itself may have changed settings numerous times while remaining the same natural gemstone throughout its life.

This process is likely to accelerate as newly mined diamonds become increasingly scarce.

Authentication Will Become More Important Than Ever

As more diamonds enter the secondary market, authentication will become increasingly critical.

Consumers will want certainty that the diamond they are purchasing is:

• Natural rather than laboratory-grown
• Correctly identified
• Accurately graded
• Free from undisclosed treatments
• Properly documented

This places greater importance on independent laboratory grading.

Professional laboratories such as DCLA play an essential role in verifying the identity and quality of diamonds entering both the primary and secondary markets. Independent examination provides confidence for buyers, sellers, insurers and future owners alike.

The Growing Challenge of Laboratory-Grown Substitution

One emerging concern is the increasing number of natural diamond certificates being fraudulently paired with laboratory-grown diamonds or simulants.

As DCLA has previously reported, certificates can be separated from the original stone, creating opportunities for deliberate substitution. As secondary market activity increases, verifying that the diamond matches its accompanying grading report will become essential.

Independent examination helps protect both consumers and the integrity of the natural diamond market.

A Market That Could Resemble Fine Art

Natural diamonds possess one characteristic that laboratory-grown diamonds can never replicate—true geological scarcity.

As mine production continues to decline, natural diamonds may increasingly resemble other finite luxury assets such as fine art, vintage automobiles and rare watches.

Their value will not simply depend on beauty or craftsmanship, but also on rarity, provenance and authenticated identity.

The second-hand market is therefore likely to evolve from an occasional source of supply into a fundamental pillar of the global natural diamond industry.

Looking Ahead

The natural diamond industry is entering a period of structural change.

Mine production is expected to continue declining over the coming decades, while new discoveries remain scarce and increasingly difficult to develop. Existing polished diamonds already in private ownership represent an enormous reservoir of future supply.

As these stones gradually re-enter the marketplace through resale, estate collections and jewellery recycling, confidence in independent authentication will become more important than ever.

For laboratories such as DCLA, this evolving landscape reinforces a central responsibility: ensuring every diamond can be accurately identified, independently graded and matched to its rightful documentation. In a future where existing natural diamonds become an increasingly valuable and finite resource, trust will be as important as the diamonds themselves.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general industry information and commentary. Market conditions, mine production and future supply forecasts are subject to change. DCLA encourages consumers and members of the jewellery trade to obtain independent laboratory verification when buying, selling or re-entering natural diamonds into the marketplace.

Nature vs Technology: Why Large Natural Diamonds Are Exceptionally Rare While Large Laboratory-Grown Diamonds Are Increasingly Common

 

For billions of years, nature has been producing diamonds deep beneath the Earth’s surface under immense pressure and temperatures exceeding 1,000°C. Every natural diamond is the result of a geological journey unlike any other gemstone, carrying with it a unique record of the Earth’s history.

Today, laboratory-grown diamonds are manufactured in controlled environments over a period of weeks rather than billions of years. While they possess the same crystal structure as diamond, the economics of their production are almost the complete inverse of nature.

Nature’s Ratio: Large Diamonds Are Exceptionally Rare

Natural diamond deposits follow a remarkably predictable size distribution.

The overwhelming majority of diamonds recovered from mines around the world are small crystals. As crystal size increases, rarity increases exponentially. Large gem-quality rough diamonds are exceptionally uncommon because their growth requires an uninterrupted geological environment over immense periods of time. Even minor changes in pressure, temperature, or surrounding chemistry can halt growth or fracture a developing crystal.

This means that:

• Small diamonds make up the vast majority of natural production.
• Medium-sized diamonds are considerably less common.
• Large diamonds are exceptionally rare.
• Very large, high-quality diamonds are among the rarest natural materials on Earth.

This natural scarcity is why diamonds above several carats increase dramatically in value. Their rarity is not created by marketing—it is governed by geology.

Laboratory Production: The Reverse Distribution

Laboratory-grown diamonds operate under a completely different economic model.

Manufacturers begin with a tiny diamond seed and grow additional carbon onto it using either High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) or Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) technology.

Unlike mining, where large diamonds are rarely discovered, laboratory production often aims to grow the largest crystal economically possible.

The production costs of a laboratory-grown diamond are concentrated in operating the equipment rather than discovering the crystal. Once a growth cycle has begun, extending growth to produce a larger crystal is frequently more profitable than manufacturing numerous small stones.

As a result:

• Larger laboratory-grown rough is increasingly common.
• Multiple large diamonds can be produced from a single manufacturing facility every month.
• Production volumes are limited primarily by equipment capacity and electricity costs rather than geological rarity.

In many modern factories, larger diamonds are actually preferred because they provide greater manufacturing flexibility and can be cut into multiple finished stones.

The distribution therefore becomes almost the reverse of nature.

Billions of Years vs Several Weeks

Natural diamonds typically formed between one and three billion years ago within the Earth’s mantle at depths approaching 150 to 250 kilometres.

Their growth occurred slowly under constantly changing geological conditions before volcanic eruptions transported them to the Earth’s surface through kimberlite and lamproite pipes.

Laboratory-grown diamonds, by comparison, are produced in controlled chambers over several weeks.

Every variable—including temperature, pressure, gas composition and growth rate—is carefully managed by technicians rather than nature.

A Record of Earth’s History

One of the most fascinating differences lies within the crystal itself.

Natural diamonds contain microscopic traces of the environment in which they formed. These include tiny amounts of nitrogen, boron, hydrogen and numerous other trace elements that became incorporated into the crystal lattice over geological time.

Many natural diamonds also contain microscopic mineral inclusions originating from deep within the Earth’s mantle. These tiny crystals provide scientists with valuable information about regions of the Earth that can never be directly sampled.

In effect, every natural diamond is a geological time capsule.

Laboratory-grown diamonds, however, are produced from highly purified carbon sources under carefully controlled conditions. Their objective is consistency rather than geological complexity.

Consequently, laboratory-grown diamonds are composed almost entirely of carbon, with very low levels of naturally occurring trace elements. Depending on the manufacturing process, they may instead exhibit characteristics associated with their production, including metallic catalyst residues in some HPHT-grown diamonds or growth-related structural features in CVD-grown diamonds.

Rather than recording billions of years of Earth’s geological history, laboratory-grown diamonds primarily reflect the manufacturing process used to create them.

Why These Differences Matter

Although natural and laboratory-grown diamonds share the same fundamental crystal structure and hardness, their origin is entirely different.

Natural diamonds represent an irreplaceable finite resource created by geological processes that cannot be replicated by nature within any human timescale. Their rarity is determined by billions of years of Earth history and the extremely low probability of large crystal formation.

Laboratory-grown diamonds represent an impressive technological achievement. They are manufactured products whose supply is governed by industrial capacity, advances in production technology and manufacturing costs.

Understanding these differences is essential when assessing rarity, long-term availability and market value. As laboratory production continues to expand, large laboratory-grown diamonds are expected to become increasingly accessible, while large natural diamonds will remain among the rarest and most sought-after treasures ever created by nature.

The DCLA Perspective

At the Diamond Certification Laboratory of Australia (DCLA), every diamond is identified and graded according to internationally recognised gemmological standards. Whether natural or laboratory-grown, accurate identification allows consumers, jewellers and collectors to make informed decisions based on origin, rarity and value.

While both categories have their place within today’s jewellery market, they should never be considered equivalent in terms of geological origin. One is a remarkable product of Earth’s natural history, while the other is a remarkable achievement of modern science.

Understanding that distinction remains fundamental to informed purchasing and responsible disclosure throughout the diamond industry.

Source: DCLA

Natural Diamonds Face a Defining Period of Change and Opportunity

 

The natural diamond industry is entering a crucial period of transformation, with market leaders highlighting the key forces that will shape demand, supply and consumer confidence over the next five years.

According to analysis from De Beers, rebuilding demand for natural diamonds will depend on several important industry priorities, including stronger marketing, clearer differentiation from lab grown diamonds and a more balanced supply environment.

Marketing Remains Critical for Natural Diamond Demand

De Beers believes effective marketing will play a central role in restoring consumer desire for natural diamonds. After a period of changing consumer behaviour and economic uncertainty, the industry must continue to communicate the unique emotional value, rarity and enduring legacy of natural diamonds.

Building a stronger connection with younger consumers will be essential to ensuring natural diamonds maintain their position as symbols of love, commitment and achievement.

Lab Grown Diamond Pricing Faces Growing Pressure

The rapid growth of synthetic lab grown diamonds has created a new competitive landscape for the diamond industry.

However, current retail margins on lab grown diamonds are expected to face increasing pressure as competition expands and production continues to rise. As prices decline, the industry believes consumers will increasingly focus on understanding the differences between natural diamonds and laboratory created alternatives.

Differentiation Becomes Key to Consumer Confidence

Clear education and transparency will be vital for the future of the diamond market.

Natural diamonds are formed over billions of years beneath the earth’s surface, while lab grown diamonds are created through technological processes in controlled environments. Ensuring consumers understand these differences will be important in maintaining confidence and value perception.

Independent grading and certification from recognised laboratories such as DCLA will continue to play an important role in providing consumers with trust and assurance when purchasing natural diamonds.

Declining Rough Diamond Supply Could Support Long Term Market Balance

Another major factor shaping the future of natural diamonds is declining global rough diamond production.

With several major mines reaching maturity and fewer large discoveries entering production, supply is expected to reduce over the medium to long term. A tighter supply environment could help support a healthier balance between availability and demand.

Russia Introduces New Rough Diamond Export Duty

Russia is set to introduce an 8% export duty on rough diamonds weighing 0.45 carats or more from September 1.

The new measure, announced through a government decree, adds another layer of complexity to the global rough diamond supply chain. Russia remains one of the world’s largest diamond producers, meaning changes to its export policies can influence international market dynamics.

AWDC Launches First Sale of Traceable Artisanal Diamonds from Congo

The Antwerp World Diamond Centre has completed its first sale of artisanally mined rough diamonds from the Democratic Republic of Congo through the OrigemA programme.

Established in 2022 as a partnership between Belgium and the DRC, OrigemA aims to connect small scale Congolese miners with international markets by providing fully traceable artisanal diamonds.

The programme is designed to improve market access for artisanal miners while ensuring they receive fair value for their production. The DRC accounts for a significant share of global artisanal diamond output, making responsible sourcing initiatives increasingly important for the future of the industry.

Petra Diamonds Faces Ongoing Industry Pressure

Petra Diamonds continues to experience the challenges affecting many mid tier diamond producers as the industry works through a prolonged period of market disruption.

Lower rough diamond prices, weaker luxury demand in key markets and increased competition from lab grown diamonds have created financial pressure across the sector.

The company’s restructuring challenges highlight the broader issues facing producers with concentrated operations and single commodity exposure. The coming years are expected to test the resilience of diamond miners as the industry adjusts to changing consumer demand and evolving market conditions.

The Future of Natural Diamonds

The next five years will be a defining period for the natural diamond industry.

Success will depend on strengthening consumer confidence, improving education, supporting responsible sourcing and reinforcing the unique value of natural diamonds.

While the market faces significant challenges, declining supply, stronger differentiation and renewed storytelling around natural diamonds could create the foundation for a more balanced and sustainable future.

Source: DCLA

US Consumers Continue to Prefer Natural Diamonds, De Beers Study Reveals

 

New research from De Beers highlights continued strong consumer demand for natural diamonds in the United States, with natural diamond jewellery remaining the most desired choice among luxury jewellery buyers.

The latest US Diamond Acquisition Study, based on insights from 18,500 women across the US, reveals that consumers continue to view natural diamonds as a symbol of value, celebration and personal achievement.

The study found that natural diamonds rank as the most desirable luxury jewellery gift, with 11% of women choosing natural diamond jewellery as their preferred option. This places natural diamonds ahead of lab-grown diamonds at 8%, other gemstones at 5%, and plain gold jewellery at 4%.

Average spending on diamond jewellery has also increased significantly. The average purchase price for natural diamond jewellery reached $4,063 in 2025, up from $3,242 in 2023, driven by consumers choosing larger diamond sizes, with the average total carat weight increasing from 1.65 carats to 1.86 carats.

One of the key findings is the growing influence of Generation Z, which has become the second largest generation of diamond buyers. Gen Z now represents 23% of natural diamond demand value despite making up only 18% of the population.

Younger consumers are also spending more on natural diamonds, with Gen Z buyers spending an average of $4,080 per purchase compared with $2,250 for Baby Boomers.

While engagements and weddings remain important drivers of diamond demand, the way consumers purchase diamonds is changing. Three quarters of US diamond demand now comes from non-bridal occasions, including birthdays, career milestones, promotions, personal achievements and self-purchase.

De Beers found that Gen Z buyers are particularly motivated by self-expression, viewing diamonds as a reflection of personal identity. They also rely heavily on social media when researching jewellery purchases.

Diana Mitkov from De Beers’ Diamond Demand Insights & Analytics team said the findings show that consumers continue to aspire to own natural diamonds, while the reasons behind purchases are evolving.

“Traditional milestones such as engagements are no longer the only occasions where consumers celebrate with diamonds. Today’s buyers are looking for meaningful pieces that reflect their own stories and achievements.”

The report also highlighted positive trends among independent US jewellers. Retail data from 950 stores showed natural diamond sales increased by 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 9% in the first quarter of 2026.

Coloured and lower-colour natural diamonds, promoted through De Beers’ “Desert Diamonds” campaign, performed particularly well, with sales growth of 15% and 19% respectively.

While lab-grown diamond jewellery continues to grow in volume, falling prices have reduced its overall value share. In 2025, natural diamonds represented approximately 85% of independent jewellers’ diamond sales value compared with 15% for lab-grown diamonds.

The study also found that sales of larger lab-grown diamonds decline once stones reach 3 carats or more, suggesting consumers may question the value and appeal of very large synthetic diamonds.

De Beers believes the future of natural diamonds will be supported by changing supply and demand dynamics. Declining global natural diamond production is expected to help create a healthier supply balance, while improving demand conditions in key markets are providing renewed confidence for the industry.

The findings reinforce the ongoing appeal of natural diamonds as rare, unique creations of nature, with consumers continuing to value their emotional significance, individuality and long-term meaning.

Source: DCLA

UK Advertising Standards Ruling Targets Lab Diamond Marketing

 

Two online jewellery retailers have been ordered to amend their advertising after the United Kingdom’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) ruled that their use of the word “diamond” without clear qualification was misleading to consumers.

According to a report published by the Financial Times, the ASA found that online retailers Linjer and Novita Diamonds breached advertising standards by failing to adequately disclose that the products promoted in paid Google and Meta advertisements were laboratory grown rather than natural diamonds.

The advertisements, which ran in January, were challenged by the Natural Diamond Council and the London Diamond Bourse, both of which argued that consumers could reasonably interpret the term “diamond” to refer to natural diamonds unless otherwise specified.

The ASA ruled that future advertising must include clear and prominent qualifiers such as “synthetic”, “laboratory grown”, or “laboratory created” whenever describing non natural diamond products.

Amber Pepper, CEO of the Natural Diamond Council, described the decision as “a victory for consumers”, while London Diamond Bourse president David Troostwyk said the ruling delivered a strong message that misleading advertising practices would not be tolerated within the jewellery sector.

Linjer stated that it had not realised the advertisements breached the code and confirmed it would work with its marketing agency to ensure appropriate terminology is used in future campaigns. Novita Diamonds maintained that it did not consider its advertising misleading, although it has since amended its advertisements to place the word “lab” before “diamonds” for greater clarity.

Laboratory grown diamonds are manufactured using high pressure high temperature or chemical vapour deposition technology, replicating the crystal structure of natural diamonds through energy intensive industrial processes. Their significantly lower production costs have contributed to rapid market growth in recent years, particularly within the United States jewellery sector.

The Financial Times reported that laboratory grown diamonds now account for approximately 17 per cent of the US retail diamond jewellery market by volume, compared with only 3 per cent in 2020.

The ruling is likely to be viewed as an important development for the natural diamond industry, which has faced increasing price pressure and shifting consumer demand amid the rapid expansion of synthetic diamond sales. For many within the trade, the decision reinforces the importance of accurate terminology, transparency, and consumer confidence in diamond marketing and disclosure standards.

Source: DCLA

The Natural Diamond Council has strongly rejected recent claims by Pandora

 

The Natural Diamond Council has strongly rejected recent claims by Pandora that lab-grown diamonds carry a carbon footprint up to 90 per cent lower than natural diamonds, describing the campaign as misleading and damaging to the global natural diamond industry.

Pandora based its claims on a 2019 study conducted by the former Diamond Producers Association, now operating as the Natural Diamond Council. However, the NDC argues the data relied upon is outdated, with some figures tracing back more than a decade, and says the study only reflected a limited segment of the natural diamond sector rather than the industry as a whole.

In an open letter addressed to Pandora CEO Berta De Pablos-Barbier, the NDC criticised what it described as a “PR stunt” designed to unfairly discredit natural diamonds in favour of synthetic alternatives.

The organisation further stated that comparisons between natural and lab-grown diamonds are inherently flawed because they represent two fundamentally different categories. According to the NDC, natural diamonds are rare geological creations formed over billions of years, while lab-grown diamonds are manufactured products capable of being produced in virtually unlimited quantities.

The council warned that reducing the discussion solely to carbon comparisons risks misleading consumers and spreading misinformation about the broader social and economic contribution of the natural diamond industry, which supports millions of people globally through mining, manufacturing and trade.

The NDC also called on Pandora to engage more constructively with industry bodies focused on improving sustainability, environmental stewardship and social responsibility across both the natural and synthetic diamond sectors.

Source: DCLA

CIBJO U-Turn: Don’t Say Lab Grown, Say Synthetic

The World Jewellery Confederation (CIBJO) is set to reverse a decision made in 2010 – and insist that non-natural diamonds are labelled as “synthetic”.

It says the terms “laboratory-grown” and “laboratory-created” should be removed from the Diamond Blue Book – the de facto standard for diamond terminology, grading and trade practices – and from all relevant ISO Standards.

In addition, the 4Cs grading system should be used only for natural diamonds (as the GIA is now doing).

Udi Sheintal (pictured), president of CIBJO’s Diamond Commission, said the original acceptance of lab grown terminology had been well-intentioned, but proved to be misplaced.

“At the time, we believed we were acknowledging a commercial reality and extending a constructive hand to a new segment of the industry,” he said, in a special report ahead of the 2025 CIBJO Congress in Paris at the end of October.

“We hoped for a spirit of cooperation, with shared standards, ethics and transparency.”

But he said many in the synthetic diamond sector — along with some grading laboratories and major retail chains – took advantage of that inclusive approach.

“In addition, the marketing narrative around synthetic diamonds has been aggressively shaped to position them as the more ethical, sustainable, and conflict-free choice, almost always without substantiation.”

He also called for greater transparency, requiring that all descriptions and marketing of synthetic diamonds reflect the reality of their origin: they are not grown or created in a “laboratory,” but rather are manufactured in industrial facilities through artificial processes.

Source: IDEX

US Jeweler “Sold Lab Growns as Natural Diamonds”

A jeweler has been arrested in New Jersey, USA, over allegations that he misrepresented lab grown diamonds as natural.

Justin T. Wentzel, 43, owner of Ice Storm Jewelry, over-valued three items of diamond jewelry by as much as $23,800, according to local police.

A victim made a complaint in June and Wentzel was arrested on 7 August after he was asked to attend police headquarters.

“Mr. Wentzel was charged with theft by deception, criminal simulation, and falsifying or tampering with a record,” said Mount Olive Township Police Department, in a statement.

“Through the course of the investigation, it was determined that Mr. Wentzel sold lab grown diamonds as genuine diamonds and over valued the worth and price of the jewelry by as much as $23,800.”

Wetzel was released pending a court hearing.

Source: DCLA

Lab Growns: France Rejects Call to Drop “Synthetic” Label

The French government is standing by its legal requirement that lab grown diamonds carry a “synthetic” label.

Its finance ministry rejected a renewed call, presented by member of parliament Olivia Gregoire (pictured) on behalf of the lab grown lobby.

Gregoire, minister delegate for small and medium-sized enterprises, trade, crafts, and tourism, sought a review of the mandatory label “synthetic diamond,” arguing that the term might unfairly stigmatize lab grown diamonds.

The ministry responded last week, saying it stands by a policy that has been in place since January 2002, designed to prevent consumer confusion and to ensure transparency in the diamond market.

The decision was welcomed by the natural diamond lobby as a victory. The lab grown sector expressed disappointment but acknowledged that the ruling provides regulatory clarity.

Under French law, lab grown diamonds can only be referred to as “diamant de synthese” or “synthetique” – “synthetic diamond” or “synthetic”.

The terms “diamant de laboratoire” and “diamant de culture” – “laboratory diamond” and “cultivated diamond” – are banned.

The rule on synthetics was also challenged, unsuccessfully, in October 2023. French retailers must designate as “synthetic” any stones that were entirely or partly man-made.

The term “laboratory diamond” can only be used for sales and advertising outside France.

Source: DCLA