There appears to be an improvement in both overall mood and confidence amongst buyers this month. We believe the reason behind this has been the recent behaviour of the leading producers, De Beers, Alrosa, and Angola. If we look at the last quarter of 2025, all 3 producers were distributing broadly, substantial volumes of goods, whether in boxes or special deals across all the major centres to anyone willing to buy. However, by the year end all 3 producers tightened distribution significantly. De Beers only sold a “special deal” to one customer, as did Alrosa, and Angola (Catoca) reduced from ten boxes to just three. Luelle followed suit reducing from ten boxes to just five. This served to tighten both supply and distribution.
The sale of De Beers by Anglo American continues with ongoing speculation as to which consortium will be the purchaser. Following the publication of De Beers full year figures released on 20 th Feb, there was a further $2.3 billion write down of the company. This is the third write down in as many years bringing the company to a $2.3 billion valuation.
We believe that once a clear leadership role is established, it will provide a further boost to confidence within the industry.
Rough
As seen recently larger sizes of rough +10cts remain in good demand, as do the 5-10ct ranges reflecting strong prices, where 2 carat polished is in good demand. 2-4 carat goods are also strong, but it seems this has still to be reflected fully in the polished prices of 4grs. The 3-6grs, which for several months have been less popular, have seen a resurgence in demand primarily since De Beers adjusted their prices last month, however again this demand is surprising because sales of pointer polished remain slow.
An area of significant change has been the smalls -3grs. While price in these areas remains key, we are seeing some demand. This is in stark contrast to the situation at the end of 2025, just 6 weeks ago, when customers had no appetite to even look at the goods.
Last week De Beers informed its customers that some goods could be refused prior to the Sight without negatively impacting the customers ‘demonstrated demand’ quota. These were primarily in some area -3gr +7, and -7, and all Near Gem and Industrial boxes. This might indicate that there will currently be no price adjustment made in these areas during the February Sight.
Overall, it is expected that again De Beers will keep distribution tight which will continue to help the market. Alrosa commenced sales this week and echoed the general sentiment, with prices in the 2-10ct ranges increasing by between 3-5%. Mid-range sizes 4-6grs reduced by 2-3%, to fall in line with market prices. -9 sizes have also been reduced to reflect current market price.
All these adjustments are broadly aligned to market demand, so although perhaps fragile, as polished sales are slow, the market seems to be finding an equilibrium.
ODC sales run from 16 th – 25 th Feb, where they will present 972,000 carats, including some ROM parcels purchased last Oct.
Polished
Polished prices seemed to have slowed their decline in several areas, noticeably 0.30-1.00 carat sizes. Overall, polished markets at retail level are seasonally quiet. In US there has been demand for 1.50 carat and larger in Rounds and Fancy shapes, and Valentines sales look positive. Indian polished demand slowed slightly due to high gold prices, and China remains weak.
The Interim Agreement framework, between US and India, announced in early February, under which zero tariffs will be applied to diamonds and coloured gemstones entering the US from India has been unanimously welcomed. Currently tariffs have been reduced to 18% (effective March 2026) which will provide immediate relief and once the agreement is concluded full zero tariff should revive competitiveness. The effect of tariffs last year resulted in a 60% fall in polished diamonds exports to the worlds leading market. It is expected that India may pause exports to the US, while final terms are discussed. Tariffs on finished jewellery will remain at 18%.
TAGS Tenders
We presented our latest tender from 16 th – 20 th Feb. The event consisted of a full range of size categories and qualities with an emphasis on +5 carats. The value was more than $16m, and we welcomed well over 100 companies to view. We concluded a sell through of 60% to a total of 46 international companies. As expected, the strongest bidding took place in the larger sizes and higher qualities.
Our regular tender of high quality Southern African production commences on 1 st March until 6 th March, and this will be followed by another Zimbabwe production from ZCDC, which will run from 8 th -12 th March.
Source: DCLA
